【新刊速递】《亚洲调查》（AS）Vol. 65, No. 3, May／June 2025 ｜ 国政学人

题目：Contacting, Petitioning, and Satisfaction with Government Responsiveness: Nationwide Survey Evidence from China

作者：Junius F. Brown，昆山杜克大学政治经济学客座助理教授。

摘要：中国的公民可以通过广泛的制度渠道来提出政治意见，这些渠道包括联系领导干部、公务员和上访。依据来自第五轮亚洲民主动态调查的数据，本文将参与提出政治意见的群体划分为近期参与者（过去三年中参加过这项调查的人）、潜在参与者（近期没有参与过这项调查但有意参与的人）以及未参与者（未参与过这项调查也无意参与的人）。研究发现，在上述三类群体中，相较于未参与者，潜在参与者对政府的回应能力持有更乐观的态度。但是，近期上访者的乐观程度明显低于潜在上访者。在对政府响应能力的印象上，近期联络者似乎与潜在联络者没有明显差异。这表明，上访者对政府的响应能力感到失望，同时，与官员的联络要么没有产生任何效果，要么带来了轻微的负面影响，而不会产生持续的积极影响。

Chinese citizens have access to a wide range of institutional channels through which they can give political input, including contacting elected officials, contacting civil servants, and petitioning. For each of these modalities, Wave 5 of the Asian Barometer Survey allows me to distinguish between recent participants (those who did this in the last three years), potential participants (those who have not recently done this, but would), and non-participants (those who have not and would not do this). I find that across all three modalities, potential participants are more optimistic about government responsiveness than non-participants. But recent petitioners are significantly less optimistic than potential petitioners, and recent contactors are not significantly different from potential contactors in their impressions of government responsiveness. This indicates that petitioners come away disillusioned about responsiveness, while contacting officials has either no net effect or a slight negative effect, but no persistent positive effect.

题目：An Incomplete Bargain: Reading Indian Federalism through the Jammu and Kashmir Constituent Assembly

作者：Rouf Dar，吉塔姆大学政治学助理教授；Louise Tillin，伦敦国王学院政治学教授。

摘要：查谟和克什米尔邦是印度唯一一个自行制定宪法并就自治条款与印度 1950 年宪法进行协商的邦。这种自治权被写入了宪法第370条，但该条款于2019年被废除。本文将探讨印度和克什米尔政治联盟的构想，这一构想在查谟和克什米尔制宪会议中提出。查谟和克什米尔与印度联邦结盟的行为被视为一种有限制、有条件的主权共享，制宪会议寻求将第370条宪法永久化，以确保邦的自治权不受印度立法机构多数票的影响，并保护其土地再分配的权利。本文对有关印度联邦制起源的主流讨论提出质疑，这些观点认为联邦制起源于先前单一中央权威机关（具“整合”职能）的权力下放。本文的观点是，印度在联邦法案之前就存在多中心主权，正因如此，处于边缘地位的政治行为体才力图维护这种主权。

Jammu and Kashmir was the only state in India to write its own constitution and negotiate autonomy provisions in India’s 1950 constitution. This autonomy was enshrined in Article 370, a clause which was annulled in 2019. In this article, we examine the conception of political union between India and Kashmir as framed by Jammu and Kashmir’s own Constituent Assembly. We show that the act of federating with the Indian Union was viewed as a limited and conditional pooling of sovereignty. The Assembly sought to make Article 370 permanent to safeguard the state’s autonomy from legislative majorities in India and to preserve the right to redistribute land. We challenge the dominant classification of India’s federal origins as arising from power devolution by a previously unitary central authority (“holding together”), demonstrating the multicentered sovereignty which existed before the act of Union and which political actors on the margins sought to preserve.

题目：Ethnic Identity, Salience of Politics, and Democratic Participation: A Comparative Study of Ethnic Majority and Minority Communities in the Sundarbans, in Coastal India

作者：Nisha Bellinger，博伊西州立大学公共服务学院政治学助理教授；Akash Sharma，印度理工学院曼迪分校发展研究硕士；Shyamasree Dasgupta，印度理工学院曼迪分校人文与社会科学学院副教授；Saleh Ahmed，密歇根州立大学东兰辛分校社会学系助理教授。

摘要：对印度沿海地区容易受到气候变化带来的环境压力影响的个体来说，其种族身份如何影响他们在政治中所扮演的角色？针对这一问题，本文研究了来自印度西孟加拉邦孙德尔本斯的两个族群：一个属于少数族群的部落群体和一个非部落群体，在这两个族群中，后者是多数群体。具体来说，本文通过调查数据和混合方法，来评估在面临气候压力时，政治和政治参与在上述两个族群民主治理过程中的显著性。本文发现，与少数族群的部落群体相比，政治因素对非部落群体的影响更为显著。然而，在政治参与方面，这两个群体并没有显著性差异。本文对上述研究结果进行深入剖析，并结合气候变化带来的挑战，探讨了其潜在影响。

How does ethnic identity influence the role of politics for individuals who are vulnerable to environmental stressors of climate change in coastal India? We study this research question in the context of two ethnic groups: one Scheduled Tribe group that is a minority, and one non-tribe group that is a majority, in the Sundarbans of West Bengal, in India. In particular, we assess the salience of politics and political participation in democratic governance of the two groups in the context of climate stressors through survey data and a mixed-methods strategy. We find that politics is more salient for the non-tribe group than for the Scheduled Tribe group. However, there is no difference in political participation between the two groups. We provide insight into these findings and discuss their implications in the context of challenges associated with climate change.

题目：Toward a Political Model of Soft Power: An Empirical evaluation of South Korean Foreign Polic

作者：Jenna Gibson，伊利诺伊州芝加哥大学政治学系国际关系专业博士生；Felicia Istad，高丽大学公共行政系助理教授。

摘要：“软实力”（soft power）指的是国家依靠吸引力而非胁迫手段来实现其目标，这一理念已被应用于诸多情境中，以致概念泛化。不过，作为一种描述国家行为（并非基于军事和经济维度）的方式，其仍然具有一定吸引力。本文提出了一种回归软实力本质的模型，该模型既包含积极的情感反馈（“情绪”），也包含明确的政治目标（“政治性”）。这一模型清晰阐释了“软实力”的概念，并为政策制定者和学者提供了一个实用框架。为了对模型进行检验，本文分析了2021年韩国前总统文在寅和防弹少年团（BTS）出席联合国大会这一举措。基于116758条Youtube评论进行的情感分析和话题建模发现，虽然评论中表现出明显的积极情绪，但这些积极情绪这对政治的贡献有限。这些发现对有关软实力的假设提出了挑战，并揭示了有关其在外交政策上的含义。

Soft power, the idea that states can achieve their goals through attraction rather than coercion, has been applied to various contexts, leading to significant concept creep. Still, it remains appealing as a way to describe state behavior beyond military and economic factors. This article proposes a model that returns to the core of soft power, which involves both a positive affective response (“sentiment”) and an explicit political goal (“politicality”). This model clarifies the concept of soft power and offers a practical framework for both policymakers and scholars. We test our model by analyzing the reception of a South Korean government initiative: the 2021 visit to the UN General Assembly by former president Moon Jae-in and BTS. Sentiment analysis and topic modeling of 116,758 YouTube comments reveal strong positive sentiment but limited engagement with the political message. These findings challenge assumptions about soft power and have implications for foreign policy.

题目：Renouncing the Cyber War: Japan’s Risk-based Approach to Cybersecurity

作者：Sofiya Sayankina，韩国外国语大学国际合作与战略中心的研究员。

摘要：日本宪法第九条明确声明日本放弃战争，并规定日本在自卫情况下才可使用武力。因此，日本既无法利用其他国家所拥有的、日益使用频繁的网络工具，也无法完全采用与之相同的基于威慑之上的国家安全叙事方式。本文通过分析国家虽具备技术、资源与能力，却无法依靠以威胁为基础的安全逻辑来维护国家安全的案例，填补了针对这一领域的研究空白。本文运用话语分析和内容分析，来展示日本如何在基于风险的安全框架下构建其网络安全叙事。同时，本文还探讨了日本网络安全叙事所经历的变化，并阐述了网络风险以及叙事限制如何影响着日本的网络政策制定进程。

Article 9 of Japan’s constitution renounces war and allows the use of military force only in self-defense. Thus, Japan can neither use the growing number of cyber tools available to other state actors, nor can it fully adopt the same threat-based approach to its national security narrative. This article addresses a gap in the literature by examining the case of a state that possesses technology, resources, and capabilities but is unable to adopt a threat-based security logic. Using discourse and content analysis methods, I show how Japan has constructed its cybersecurity narrative within a risk-based security framework. I also trace the changes that Japan’s cybersecurity narrative has undergone and explain how cyber risks and narrative constraints have influenced the cyber policymaking process in Japan.